Rebellion percent chance does not appear accurate

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    • Rebellion percent chance does not appear accurate

      I am playing in three 4x Historic 73 all playable maps at the moment. I have noticed many countries smoldering with unguarded provinces hovering around 0-10% morale for 10-20 game days. There territories mostly dont produce anything and many dont even have units. A couple extreme examples are france and netherlands colonies after their mainlands have been taken. They dont even have resources to feed their country or build a capital, yet none desert. I just dont want to bother going to war with them to track down all their assets over the globe and take a hit to my morale, but looking at this has gotten me wondering. Why dont they dessert at the stated percent rates?
    • The chance of rebellion is simply a chance, not a guarantee of rebellion.

      As noted, this issue is under investigation.
      War is a game that is played with a smile. If you can't smile, grin. If you can't grin keep out of the way til you can. - Winston Churchill



      VorlonFCW
      Main Administrator
      EN Support Team | Bytro Labs Gmbh

      >>> Click Here to submit a bug report or support ticket <<<
    • This issue was under investigation but in our tests provinces rebelled, so we did not find a reproducible case yet.

      Also in the 1.5 round that I played during last Event I also saw rebellions.


      Question is then: Is the bug here really that no rebellions occur at all anymore, or is just the chance lower than it used to be? If the latter that would explain why in some "lucky" instances there are no rebellions for a longer time while we still se rebellions in our tests. Also the question is if there is a certain trigger or requirement for this bug to appear.
    • I believe that the "bug" is a drastic change in the amount of rebellions.


      My believe is that the chance of rebellion was inflated previously and a newly captured province was almost guaranteed to rebel on that first day change unless the province was held by an army or the morale had been improved through a capital capture or gold.



      For example: The numbers displayed here for province morale and chance of rebellion have not changed. A newly captured province has a 28% chance of an uprising. Of course the uprising may succeed or fail.

      Screenshot_14.jpg



      From a mathematical standpoint, these numbers suggest that if you have 100 provinces with this 28% chance that 28 of them will have a revolt and 72 of them will not. Of course probability is never a guarantee of a specific result.


      Previously if you captured 100 provinces like this I think it is safe to say that 50 of them would revolt. This was actually MORE OFTEN than this chance of uprising indicated, but since this is the way it always was we did not think much of it. Whole strategies were based around capturing a capital just prior to day change to eliminate the chance of rebellion.

      Now even though the chance of an uprising is still displayed at 28%, the actual incidence is perhaps 2 or 3 out of every 100 provinces experiences a revolt. This has removed morale management almost entirely from consideration as a part of the daily strategy.


      .
      War is a game that is played with a smile. If you can't smile, grin. If you can't grin keep out of the way til you can. - Winston Churchill



      VorlonFCW
      Main Administrator
      EN Support Team | Bytro Labs Gmbh

      >>> Click Here to submit a bug report or support ticket <<<
    • freezy wrote:

      This issue was under investigation but in our tests provinces rebelled, so we did not find a reproducible case yet.

      Also in the 1.5 round that I played during last Event I also saw rebellions.


      Question is then: Is the bug here really that no rebellions occur at all anymore, or is just the chance lower than it used to be? If the latter that would explain why in some "lucky" instances there are no rebellions for a longer time while we still se rebellions in our tests. Also the question is if there is a certain trigger or requirement for this bug to appear.
      Its hard to reproduce some things and also hard to document, so here is a little more context. I did also see provinces revolt, even mine. I checked back in the paper, and the revolted provinces we happening in small amounts in active war zones newly changing hands, but not to the provinces that had their morale slowly draw down through lack of food and loss of capital like all of france and netherlands overseas territory that were bouncing between 0-10% morale for a week of real time at 4x speed. Still, anecdotally, even in my provinces that had a 28% chance of revolt, it was something below 5% actual revolt. I had an ally that didnt realize his capital was lost for several real days at 4x speed. He didnt loose a single province even though all his territories were from 0-30% morale for multiple game days. He had over half of asia at the time.
    • Now, it seems that you may have fixed, or over fixed, Rebellion. In game 3,224,993 I am paying West Ontario. I took Toronto, and had 2 light tank brigades and a partial infantry regiment the city - over 40 hit points, with morale at 25%. Rebellion occurs, 2 light tank brigade at 90% plus strength are killed, and the infantry regiment deserts and the city turns over to another country. Bah, Humbug! Is that really supposed to happen? Not according to your table. What's going on?
      signed,
      Braveheart23, who is really peeved.
    • I don't believe you, or else the table you published about rebellions (chances of) is worthless. Now I have had 3 full strength light tank brigades destroyed (over 2,000 men) in another rebellion. I continue to say, Bah Humbug!!!!!

      At least come clean and say that your table about chances of rebellion has been greatly modified, or else is no longer valid.

      This is the table I am referring to:

      Province Morale: 16% = 83% (ground units with 21 hit points to get 0% rebellion)
      17% =77% chance of rebellion without a garrison (ground units with 20 hit points to get 0% rebellion)
      18% = 71% (18 hit points)
      19% = 65% (17 hit points)
      20% = 59% (15 hit points)
      21% = 53 (14 hit points)
      22% = 47% (12 hit points)
      23% = 41% (11 hit points to get 0% rebellion)
      24% = 35% (9 hit points)
      25% = 28% (7 hit points)
      26% = 22% (5 hit points)
      27% = 16% (4 hit points)
      28% = 10% (3 hit points)
      29% = 4% (1 hit point)
      30% or higher = 0% Note: Hit points are attack points except defense points for AA and SP AA

      The post was edited 2 times, last by Braveheart23 ().

    • Braveheart23 wrote:

      I don't believe you, or else the table you published about rebellions (chances of) is worthless. Now I have had 3 full strength light tank brigades destroyed (over 2,000 men) in another rebellion. I continue to say, Bah Humbug!!!!!

      At least come clean and say that your table about chances of rebellion has been greatly modified, or else is no longer valid.

      This is the table I am referring to:

      Province Morale: 16% = 83% (ground units with 21 hit points to get 0% rebellion)
      17% =77% chance of rebellion without a garrison (ground units with 20 hit points to get 0% rebellion)
      18% = 71% (18 hit points)
      19% = 65% (17 hit points)
      20% = 59% (15 hit points)
      21% = 53 (14 hit points)
      22% = 47% (12 hit points)
      23% = 41% (11 hit points to get 0% rebellion)
      24% = 35% (9 hit points)
      25% = 28% (7 hit points)
      26% = 22% (5 hit points)
      27% = 16% (4 hit points)
      28% = 10% (3 hit points)
      29% = 4% (1 hit point)
      30% or higher = 0% Note: Hit points are attack points except defense points for AA and SP AA

      Yes, this table created by Lawrence Czl is correct, but the designation "hitpoint" is a little unfortunate.
      What is meant are not the hitpoints that the unit itself has, but the "hitpoints" of her strength.

      A light tank level 3, for example, normally has a strength of 4, but in urban provinces only the half, so 2.
      Thus even 3 Light tanks together have only 6 strength in a city. And that's not enough where you need a strength of 7 (as it is in the table and how you can also look it in the province(i)nfo).

      I recommend AA to suppress rebellions in conquered provinces, except in mountains one of lvl 3 is always enough because it has a strength of 8. But as said, you only need to look in the province(i)nfo to know if it's enough.

      Warranty exclusion: Above informations refers to the primary, original 1.0-CoW-version. :D



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