Reveal all probabilities hypothesis

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    • 1. Spy missions have a 50% chance of failure.
      2. Military sabotage has a chance to damage or interrupt production OR reveal all armies.

      I'm guessing it flips a coin twice 0.5*0.5 = 0.25. So a given spy would have a 25% chance to reveal. It's also possible that damage, interrupt and reveal are separate and weighted equally so reveal would then be 0.5/3 = 16.7%. The numbers above assume 25% and uses the binomial distribution; each spy is a separate coin being flipped with a 25% chance of being heads. If it was instead 16.7% the probabilities would be as follows:

      1 16.7%
      2 30.6%
      3 42.1%
      4 51.8%
      5 59.8%
      6 66.5%
      7 72.1%
      8 76.7%
      9 80.6%
      10 83.8%

      If it does work something like this I'm questioning the long held belief that multiple spies in a province or buildings in a province make a difference. This would require quite a bit of data to test, but you could scientifically test it by gathering data and seeing if the data rejects the above hypothesis at a given confidence level.
    • Oof, if it turns out that buildings in a province don't matter for reveals then I've been missing out on a lot of secondary sabotage effects!

      Cool stuff.

      Do you have a theory for how presence of counterespionage spies would affect it? It's tough to isolate and gather data on probabilities of the spies themselves if we're mostly in real games where we don't know whether the opponent's counterspies are blocking some amount of success.
    • Maybe I’ll try this in a game soon. I’ll put 6 spies in a country and at the end of the game calculate how many days were revealed or not. To me I feel like 6 spies work 80% of the time so I’m guessing that this is actually quite accurate.

      CarKing the 6th of the Abrahamic Caliphate
    • jubjub bird wrote:

      Do you have a theory for how presence of counterespionage spies would affect it?
      According to the wiki counter spies "Increases the chance of foreign spies failing their mission and being caught in the target province." So I would guess that that it changes the overall chance of failure from 50% to something higher like 75%. This could be a situation where having multiple spies in a province is worse, if the counter spy raises the chance of failure of all spies in the province by the same amount. I would be afraid to guess if it affects just one or multiple. However, counter spies probably work in the same binomial way. Each is a separate coin with a 50% chance of either increasing failure or increasing capturing chance. I'd guess that it's 25% for each, so the first table above would apply.
    • I'm pretty sure counter spies work for your whole empire, or at least a larger region than one province. Like jubjub, I have caught (lots of!) enemy spies operating in different provs than the counterspies were located. Still I usually use counterspies in my core, so I don't know how big that region actually is.
      When the fake daddies are curtailed, we have failed. When their roller coaster tolerance is obliterated, their education funds are taken by Kazakhstani phishers, and their candy bars distributed between the Botswana youth gangs, we have succeeded.
      - BIG DADDY.
    • Also like jubjub, I fell that reveals are MUCH more common in provs without buildings. I sometimes try using spies in provs with buildings (just for the heck of it), and often find they attacked buildings instead. I think this works something like, "first we figure out if the action was succesful, and then what it did". The "what it did" part of that brings is to 100% reveals on empty provs, and some sort of division between reveal/attack building in the other case.
      When the fake daddies are curtailed, we have failed. When their roller coaster tolerance is obliterated, their education funds are taken by Kazakhstani phishers, and their candy bars distributed between the Botswana youth gangs, we have succeeded.
      - BIG DADDY.
    • Ah yea I've got an example too, just remembered from my heavy tank game. I had counters in my core, East Mexico, and caught an enemy spy that was in a province up in Oregon.

      Another thing I've wondered is whether spies can be caught without counters, or if you absolutely need a counter to reveal a spy.
    • K.Rokossovski wrote:

      Also like jubjub, I fell that reveals are MUCH more common in provs without buildings. I sometimes try using spies in provs with buildings (just for the heck of it), and often find they attacked buildings instead. I think this works something like, "first we figure out if the action was succesful, and then what it did". The "what it did" part of that brings is to 100% reveals on empty provs, and some sort of division between reveal/attack building in the other case.
      I'm starting to question this now that I think on it more, because I absolutely have not gotten a 50% reveal success rate with milsab spies. Granted, my enemies could have been using counters, but they can't have used that many because my spies were rarely caught. Maybe there's something to dxc's theory that it's not 50/50 success/fail, it's 50/25/25 fail/reveal/damage. Maybe we've been missing out on building damage all along :)
    • If anyone is in a test game right now, spread a bunch of spies across different provinces. I'm pretty sure espionage reports come at the province level so it'll be easier to tally up individual spy results if it's just one spy per province. Split em across buildings/empty and we might be able to put some data to this. I wish I still had my whole-map game to provide my own data.
    • jubjub bird wrote:

      Ah yea I've got an example too, just remembered from my heavy tank game. I had counters in my core, East Mexico, and caught an enemy spy that was in a province up in Oregon.

      Another thing I've wondered is whether spies can be caught without counters, or if you absolutely need a counter to reveal a spy.
      I had several games without using spies of any sort and caught spies in my cities/regions.
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