What if Austria never invaded Bosnia?

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    • What if Austria never invaded Bosnia?

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      On the 13th of July 1878, the Treaty of Berlin (which was drafted in response to the Russo-Turkic War of 1877-78) allowed the Austrian Empire to invade and occupy indefinitely the Ottoman-owned Bosnia Vilayet (Ottoman subdivision). The Austrians fought a two-month war from the 29th of July to the 20th of October. The formal annexation of Bosnia in 1908 made the Serbians (who wanted to unify the southern Slavs) assassinate Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne. But what if this never happened? This essay will explain the consequences.
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      Firstly, World War I would have never happened. Yugoslavia would not have formed as early as it did in our timeline, as there would have been no need for the Austro-Hungarian Empire to be broken up into smaller states. However, the ethnic minorities of Russia, Germany, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire, fuelled by a desire for self-determination, would have likely fought for their independence.

      Secondly, the Soviet Union may not have existed. This is because the Russian Empire would have been free to quell any uprisings as there was no World War to distract it. However, that does not eliminate the chance of a successful Communist uprising happening in Russia (or any other imperialist country) at any point in the 20th Century. The reduced chance of a Communist takeover would have potentially prevented the ongoing Russo-American rivalry.

      Thirdly, since Germany wouldn’t have been humiliated for starting World War I, Hitler would have never come to power, preventing World War II and the Holocaust. Benito Mussolini still would have become Il Duce of Italy as the country wanted territories from Austria, such as Fiume (now Rijeka in Croatia), Tyrol, and a few ports to the east of the Adriatic Sea. Japan may have also become expansionist and may have ended up in a war with the United States and China.

      Fourthly, due to the reduced possibility of the formation of the Soviet Union, China may have become the leader of a “Communist Internationale” as nothing would stop a Communist takeover there. Other countries, like Cuba, Mongolia, Ethiopia, North Korea, Laos, Kampuchea, the United Arab Republic and Vietnam would have had Communist or Socialist governments, although Kampuchea (Cambodia), the UAR (now Syria and Egypt) and Ethiopia are no longer Socialist.

      Fifthly, the British and French colonial empires would have lasted longer. This is because there would have been no expensive global wars to fight, allowing Britain and France to continue funding the running of their colonies.

      Finally, since the League of Nations and UN were founded in response to the World Wars, they may have not existed until someone was spontaneously struck with the idea to create an international legislative peacekeeping body.

      As this essay shows, the world would be a very different place if it wasn’t for the invasion of Bosnia. In fact, it would have prevented the World Wars and the development of nuclear weapons. However, it would have also allowed European imperialism to continue, and there would be no need for the UN to form.

      What do you think would have happened?
      I'm from Egypt
      I have nothing else to write. Have a nice day :D